Population projections are published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). Australian population projections are not predictions or forecasts, but are derived from holding assumed levels of births, deaths and migration constant into the future. Three projection series are presented in Australian Demographic Statistics for Australia population projections and Indigenous Australian population projections, and their assumptions are as follows:

Australia population projections: High series assumes the total fertility rate (TFR) will reach 1.75 babies per woman, life expectancy at birth will experience continued improvement reaching 87.7 years for males and 89.2 years for females, and net overseas migration (NOM) will increase to 275,000 people per year. Medium series assumes the TFR will remain steady at 1.6 babies per woman, life expectancy at birth will experience declining improvement reaching 83.0 years for males and 86.0 years for females, and NOM will increase to 225,000 people per year. Low series assumes the TFR will decline to 1.45 babies per woman, life expectancy at birth will experience declining improvement reaching 83.0 years for males and 86.0 years for females, and NOM will decrease to 175,000 people per year.

Indigenous Australian population projections: High series assumes constant fertility rates, an annual 0.5% increase in paternity rates, a high increase in life expectancy at birth, and zero NOM. Medium series assumes an annual decrease of 1.2% in fertility rates, constant paternity rates, a medium increase in life expectancy at birth, and zero NOM. Low series assumes an annual decrease of 1.5% in fertility rates, 0.5% decrease in paternity rates, constant life expectancy at birth, and zero NOM.

Other dashboard menu options that use Australian population data include Australian population and Australian population - age and sex.

See ABS - Population Projections and ABS - Estimates and Projections, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians for further information, including in-depth commentary and analysis, in particular the source data Quality Declaration.

Source references:

Australian population projections: Data downloads, Data cube, Projected population, components of change and summary statistics - Australia, state/territory, greater capital city and rest of state, 2022 (base) to 2071.

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population projections: Data Explorer datasets, Projected population, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians, Australia, states and territories, 2016 to 2031.